The United States has called on China to intervene diplomatically to prevent Iran from closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz, warning of dire global economic consequences if oil shipments are disrupted.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made the appeal during an interview with Fox News on Sunday, stating that China, as the largest importer of Iranian oil, holds significant leverage over Tehran. His comments came after Iran’s state-run Press TV reported that parliament had approved a plan to shut the Strait, though final authorization rests with the country’s Supreme National Security Council.

“I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Strait of Hormuz for their oil,” Rubio said. He warned that any closure would be “economic suicide” for Iran and added that while the US has options to respond, the move would hurt other countries’ economies even more.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, with around 20% of global oil supplies passing through it daily. It serves as a vital route for major oil and gas producers in the Middle East to export their products.

Following the US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites under Operation Midnight Hammer, oil prices surged, with Brent crude briefly touching a five-month high of $81.40 a barrel before settling back to $78 on Monday morning.

Energy analyst Saul Kavonic of MST Financial noted that the region is now heavily militarized. “The US is now positioned with an overwhelming defence posture in the region to be prepared for any Iran counter-attacks,” he said, adding that oil markets remain exposed to severe escalation.

Iran’s potential move has drawn concern from several nations. China alone imported over 1.8 million barrels per day of Iranian crude last month, according to ship-tracking firm Vortexa. Other major Asian economies like India, Japan, and South Korea also rely heavily on oil that transits the strait.

Energy expert Vandana Hari told the BBC that Iran has “little to gain and too much to lose” from closing the waterway. “Iran risks turning its oil and gas producing neighbours in the Gulf into enemies and invoking the ire of its key market China,” she said.

Meanwhile, China has sharply criticized the US strikes. Its UN Ambassador Fu Cong called for immediate de-escalation and restraint. “All parties should restrain the impulse of force… and adding fuel to the fire,” he told reporters.

The Global Times, China’s state-run newspaper, echoed this sentiment in an editorial, blaming the US for complicating and destabilizing the Middle East. It warned that Washington’s involvement was pushing the situation toward an “uncontrollable state.”

While US President Donald Trump claimed that the airstrikes had “obliterated” Iranian nuclear sites, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it has been unable to verify the extent of the damage, particularly at the underground Fordo facility. Iran has downplayed the impact, saying only minor damage occurred.

Tensions remain high in the region as diplomatic efforts clash with military posturing, and global energy markets continue to react to developments in real time.

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, has cautioned that the recent US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities could significantly damage global economic growth, especially if Iran follows through on its threat to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking to Bloomberg TV, Georgieva said the IMF is closely monitoring oil prices as tensions escalate in the Middle East. She warned of widespread economic fallout if energy markets are destabilized. “There could be secondary and tertiary impacts,” she said. “If turbulence hits growth in large economies, it could lead to downward revisions in global growth prospects.”

Over the weekend, the Iranian parliament voted to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil passes. The strait links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, making it vital to global energy security.

The move follows Operation Midnight Hammer, a US military campaign involving precision airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites. In response, energy markets reacted sharply. Oil prices surged more than 5% on Sunday to reach a five-month high of $81.40 per barrel, though they later settled slightly. Brent crude rose again on Monday morning to $77.94 per barrel, up 1.2%.

According to estimates by Goldman Sachs, if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are halved for one month and remain down by 10% over the following 11 months, global oil prices could spike to $110 per barrel.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Tehran against such action, calling it “economic suicide” and urging China—one of Iran’s biggest oil customers—to intervene diplomatically. “I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the strait of Hormuz for their oil,” he told Fox News.

Despite the threats, analysts remain divided on the likelihood of a complete disruption. Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, labeled the Strait of Hormuz “the key economic risk to watch” but deemed a total shutdown an unlikely and high-risk move for Iran.

Brokerage RBC Capital Markets acknowledged a “clear and present risk of energy attacks,” possibly by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, though they warned it could take days or weeks for Tehran’s full response to become apparent.

Vessel tracking data from Bloomberg revealed that two supertankers—the Coswisdom Lake and South Loyalty—abandoned plans to transit the strait on Sunday and turned south, highlighting the shipping industry’s rising anxiety.

As uncertainty looms, experts warn against assuming the worst is over. “We may be in the Rumsfeld ‘unknown knowns’ matrix in this nine-day Middle East military conflict,” said analysts at RBC, suggesting that wider escalation cannot yet be ruled out.

A day after the United States launched precision airstrikes on three key Iranian nuclear sites under Operation Midnight Hammer, former President Donald Trump publicly called for regime change in Iran. The statement comes despite earlier assertions by several members of Trump’s cabinet that the military action was not aimed at toppling the Iranian leadership.

Trump posted on Truth Social, “It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!” The post has reignited global discussions over Washington’s long-standing policy towards Tehran.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his office have not issued an official response. However, the comment has drawn criticism from diplomats and analysts who fear the escalation could derail any chances of reviving diplomatic engagement in the region.

According to Iran’s constitution, the Supreme Leader’s successor is chosen by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of elected clerics. A minimum of 45 votes is required to select the new leader. In case of an emergency, a provisional council comprising the president, chief justice, and a cleric from the Guardian Council temporarily assumes leadership responsibilities.

Amid speculation over Khamenei’s health and safety, attention has turned to several clerics reportedly pre-selected by the regime as potential successors:

• Alireza Arafi: Deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts and a key figure in Qom’s seminary system, Arafi’s conservative credentials and religious standing position him as a strong contender.
• Hashem Hosseini Bushehri: Another senior cleric and ally of Khamenei, Bushehri heads the Qom Seminary Society and is considered a stabilizing figure.
• Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei: Currently Iran’s Chief Justice, he brings judicial and intelligence experience from his time under former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
• Mojtaba Khamenei: The Supreme Leader’s son, a mid-ranking cleric with longstanding ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While influential behind the scenes, his candidacy is controversial due to Iran’s anti-monarchy roots which frown upon hereditary succession.

As succession debates resurface, geopolitical analysts warn that Trump’s remarks could further destabilize a volatile region already on edge after the recent military escalation. Global leaders have urged restraint, while Iran continues to assess its response options following the destruction of critical parts of its nuclear infrastructure.