In the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, military analysts began to emphasize the importance of indirect firepower in modern combat, a trend that has become increasingly evident in the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. Current estimates suggest that artillery and missile strikes are responsible for approximately 80 percent of personnel and equipment losses on both sides of the conflict. As such, NATO has focused its support for Ukraine primarily on artillery systems and ensuring a consistent supply of ammunition. However, a prolonged focus on asymmetric, low-intensity conflicts over the past several decades has left Western militaries ill-equipped to address the realities of sustained high-intensity warfare.

This “strategic awakening” has revealed significant gaps in both military readiness and industrial capability within Western defense sectors. The continuous demand for artillery has put immense pressure on defense industries, as they struggle to keep pace with the battlefield’s relentless consumption of ammunition. Early warnings about the inadequacy of stockpiles as the conflict began have led to serious delays in resupply, further complicating the situation.

Since the onset of the war, more than 620 artillery guns have been delivered to Ukraine from Western allies, along with various missile systems. The critical significance of artillery became glaringly apparent earlier in 2024 when Ukraine faced extensive territorial losses in the east due to decreased artillery shell availability before the resumption of U.S. weapon supplies. The shortage compelled Western nations to ramp up production of 155mm artillery shells significantly, with the European Union and the United States aiming to produce over 1 million rounds each annually by 2025. Nevertheless, delivery times remain daunting, fluctuating between 10 and 20 months, which severely hampers Ukrainian military operations.

Recent examinations into the evolution of modern artillery have highlighted its dependence on advanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. These components are now vital for accurate targeting, effective engagement, and damage assessment. Daniel Rice, a Special Advisor to the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukraine Armed Forces, noted Ukraine’s advancements in employing Western-made radars to track Russian artillery, as well as using HARM missiles to incapacitate these radar systems, effectively “blinding” enemy artillery. Dr. James Bosbotinis, a defense specialist, echoed these sentiments, stressing that the success of artillery operations hinges upon effective ISR to locate and engage enemy positions.

Ukraine’s artillery units have gained an impressive diverse range of operational experiences with various howitzer formats amidst high-intensity conflict. Some findings regarding artillery application may not be immediately evident. For example, while armored turrets may seem desirable, they offer limited protection against modern drone threats, indicating that mobility and evasive capabilities are often more advantageous. Platforms with wheel-based designs have demonstrated superior mobility on both tactical and operational fronts, which is crucial in the current combat landscape of Ukraine.

Moreover, automated artillery systems, while theoretically efficient, present their own set of challenges on the battlefield, particularly under adverse conditions and extended usage. There have been reports regarding the fragility of advanced systems such as the Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzer, which require meticulous maintenance in the field. Ukrainian soldiers have found that these systems are susceptible to dirt and moisture, necessitating extensive servicing time after sustained use.

The insights drawn from Ukraine’s artillery use have prompted other nations to reevaluate their own military programs. Countries such as Denmark are making significant investments to enhance their artillery capabilities, while Baltic states are increasing their ammunition production and acquiring new artillery assets. Canada is also undertaking a comprehensive overhaul of its artillery systems as part of its Indirect Fires Modernisation program to upgrade its military capabilities.

As military forces worldwide reassess their artillery strategies, the Ukrainian experience underscores a crucial lesson: success may not always stem from the most advanced technology, but rather from achieving the right balance between simplicity, efficiency, and sustainability. In today’s geopolitical climate, artillery systems must adapt to meet the evolving demands of modern warfare, where resilience and flexibility may prove more valuable than sheer technological complexity.

The recent rebel offensive that has successfully challenged the authority of Bashar al-Assad, a close ally of Moscow, has cast a shadow of uncertainty over Russia’s military bases in Syria. These installations, namely the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim air base, are critical to Russia’s military presence outside the former Soviet Union and have played integral roles in the Kremlin’s strategic activities in both Africa and the Middle East.

Reports from Russian state media suggest that the Syrian opposition has assured the security of these military facilities. However, the extent of Moscow’s control over them in light of the ongoing conflict remains ambiguous.

The Tartus naval base, strategically located on Syria’s coast, serves as Russia’s only access point to the Mediterranean Sea. Functioning as a refueling and repair station for Russian vessels, it allows them to operationally remain in the Mediterranean without the necessity of returning to Russia’s Black Sea ports, which is often complicated due to the Turkish straits. Established under a leasing agreement with Syria in 1971, the base became fully operational in 1977 amid growing Soviet partnerships with Arab nations during the Cold War. Tartus is notable for its deep-water port capabilities, accommodating nuclear submarines, and despite numerous closures of overseas military bases following the Soviet dissolution in 1991, Tartus remained operational, albeit with a reduced Russian presence.

Military activity at Tartus significantly increased during the Syrian civil war as rebel forces launched an offensive against Assad. The situation escalated dramatically in 2015 when Russia intervened militarily to bolster the Assad regime, conducting extensive aerial bombardments on rebel-held territories. A surge of personnel occurred, with the number of staff at the port increasing dramatically from just “several people” to over 1,700 by 2015. The current number of troops at Tartus remains unclear following Russia’s recent military engagement in Ukraine.

In a pivotal move for strengthening its foothold, President Putin ordered the expansion of the Tartus base in 2017, resulting from a 49-year lease agreement, provided free of charge in return for military support to Assad. The future status of Tartus now hangs in the balance following the rapid rebel advances seen in recent weeks. Satellite imagery provided by Planet indicates that as of December 9, no Russian warships were present at the base, although Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has denied that any vessels are departing Tartus.

Meanwhile, the Hmeimim airbase, established in 2015 through the adaptation of an existing civilian airport near Latakia, remains a linchpin for Russian air operations. The facility reportedly boasts extensive protective measures, including security perimeters and air defenses covering distances of up to 250 kilometers (155 miles). Throughout the civil war, Hmeimim has been utilized for airstrikes targeting opposition forces. While the Russian military does not publicly disclose troop deployments, expert analysis suggests a significant reduction in personnel at the airbase following Moscow’s escalated military actions in Ukraine beginning in 2022.

Furthermore, Hmeimim is believed to have served as a logistical hub and transit point for operations conducted by the Wagner Group, a private military contractor that has been active in Africa—a region where Russia seeks to expand its influence. The implications of the rebel offensive and the subsequent shifts in control remain uncertain, as the situation in Syria continues to evolve dramatically.

In a significant escalation of tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear activities, Britain, France, and Germany have urged the Iranian government to “immediately halt its nuclear escalation” following a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicating a substantial increase in uranium enrichment efforts by Tehran.

In a unified statement, the three European powers expressed their condemnation of Iran’s recent advancements to expand its nuclear program. The IAEA’s latest findings reveal that Iran has modified its enrichment facility at Fordo, located south of the capital Tehran. This revamp is expected to “significantly increase the rate of production of uranium enriched up to 60 percent,” raising concerns that Iran is moving closer to achieving the 90 percent enrichment level that is required to produce nuclear weapons.

The joint statement from Berlin, London, and Paris emphasized the urgency of reversing these developments, while reiterating their commitment to dialogue with Iranian officials. This appeal follows diplomatic discussions held in Geneva last week, where Western diplomats sought to address the escalating situation regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

While Iran asserts its right to pursue nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, it remains the only non-nuclear-weapon state actively enriching uranium to such high levels. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi recently remarked that Iran’s increase in enrichment activities sends a “clear message” of defiance in response to perceived external pressures.

In a prior statement, Iranian officials announced plans to deploy “new and advanced” centrifuges, framing this move as a reaction to an IAEA resolution that criticized Tehran for its lack of transparency and cooperation in the nuclear inspections process. Throughout the year, Iran has faced censure from the IAEA’s board, with actions taken against it by the UK, France, Germany, and the United States further exacerbating the situation.

The European nations cautioned that these actions have severely undermined the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA), the nuclear deal negotiated in 2015 that aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for sanctions relief. Since the withdrawal of the United States from the agreement under the Trump administration, tensions have escalated, with ongoing debates regarding Iran’s nuclear program now taking center stage in international diplomatic discussions.

In two harrowing days of military and paramilitary confrontations in Sudan, at least 176 individuals have lost their lives, according to a compilation of casualty figures provided by officials, activists, and legal representatives. This alarming toll highlights the ongoing violence that has plagued the nation since the onset of conflict in April 2023.

On Tuesday, Omdurman, one of the cities forming part of the Sudanese capital, witnessed devastating shelling by paramilitary forces, resulting in the deaths of at least 65 individuals and leaving hundreds injured. The governor of the state, aligned with the army, condemned the attacks, explicitly blaming the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for a particular shell strike that hit a passenger bus, claiming it dismembered the victims and killed everyone on board. Khartoum’s governor, Ahmed Othman Hamza, referred to such incidents as the actions of a “terrorist militia.”

This assault followed a previous day’s army airstrike on a market in Kabkabiya, a town in North Darfur, which the pro-democracy Emergency Lawyers reported left over 100 people dead. The airstrike occurred on a day when local residents gathered for shopping, causing widespread panic and grief in the community, especially among women and children. Further reports indicated that six more individuals lost their lives in North Kordofan when a drone crashed and subsequently exploded on November 26.

The situation in the famine-stricken Zamzam displacement camp in North Darfur has also worsened, with paramilitary shelling killing five residents. A United Nations-backed report released in July had already warned about famine conditions in the camp following a prolonged RSF siege of the state capital, El-Fasher, and its surroundings.

The ongoing battle between the RSF and the regular army has resulted in tens of thousands of casualties, uprooted approximately 12 million individuals, and created an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, according to the United Nations. Khartoum has suffered immense destruction, with control over the city still fiercely contested between both factions. Currently, the army controls most of Omdurman, while the RSF has established dominance in Khartoum North (Bahri) and various regions across the country.

Eyewitness reports describe the shelling in Omdurman as fierce and relentless, with artillery strikes observed from multiple locations throughout the area. One resident remarked that the level of bombing was unprecedented in recent months, while another noted the bombardment seemed concentrated around positions held by the RSF.

In the expansive Darfur region, home to a significant portion of Sudan’s population and more than half of its displaced persons, the conflict has unfolded with tragic consequences. Footage purportedly showing the aftermath of the airstrike on the market depicted scenes of devastation, as survivors sifted through wreckage and the grim sight of charred remains became evident.

Despite the RSF’s use of drones, the Sudanese military maintains aerial supremacy with its fighter jets, further complicating the dynamics of the conflict. In response to recent attacks, the army accused the RSF and their political affiliates of misrepresentation, insisting that their strikes are aimed at military targets. However, human rights groups have labeled these actions as flagrant violations, characterizing them as “horrendous massacres” aimed squarely at densely populated residential districts.

Both the RSF and the regular army face allegations of executing indiscriminate attacks on civilians, causing pivotal humanitarian distress. Recently, Human Rights Watch released a statement condemning the RSF and allied militias for numerous violations against civilians in South Kordofan, detailing accusations of war crimes, including killings, rapes, and abductions.

The organization has called upon international bodies like the United Nations and the African Union to take immediate steps to safeguard civilians caught in the crossfire of this escalating conflict, highlighting the urgent need for a protective mission in Sudan.

Estonia has initiated a tender aimed at enhancing its military capabilities through the procurement of loitering air munitions, a strategic move that is set to unfold over the next seven years. The initiative, backed by the Estonian Centre for Defence Investments (ECDI), seeks to establish a framework agreement that invites multiple providers to supply a range of air munitions.

Ramil Lipp, Strategic Category Manager of the ECDI, highlighted the primary objective of the tender, stating, “The aim of the tender is to sign a framework agreement with multiple providers to procure comprehensive air munition capabilities.” This effort is specifically focused on increasing Estonia’s defense capabilities through the incorporation of drones, which will include first-person view platforms, various targeting and signal-extending devices, and ground support units. Additionally, the tender encompasses provisions for training, lifecycle support, and maintenance services to ensure operational readiness.

The significance of loitering air munitions, also referred to as kamikaze drones, has surged in recent times, particularly in light of their deployment in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces have recognized the effectiveness of these systems, prompting numerous countries around the world to invest in similar military technologies. Lipp commented on this trend, emphasizing, “The war in Ukraine has demonstrated that loitering air munitions or attack drones are highly effective tools for halting an adversary and delivering extremely precise strikes.”

Estonia is also actively participating in a Latvia-led initiative aimed at forming an international coalition to develop and supply various types of drones to Ukraine, a sign of cooperative regional defense efforts in response to ongoing threats. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently indicated that despite reliance on foreign support, Ukraine is evolving its capabilities and may reach an annual production capacity of four million drones in the near future.

As tensions continue to escalate due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Estonia is keenly aware of its geographical vulnerability, sharing a border of 294 kilometers (182 miles) with Russia. The country is therefore prioritizing the expansion of its national defense production while strengthening partnerships with NATO allies to bolster its security posture. In a recent development, Estonia selected local firm Nitrotol OÜ to establish an ammunition and explosives manufacturing line at the Ämari air base, which is anticipated to commence operations by early next year. This factory is expected to play a crucial role in supporting Estonia’s defense capabilities as the nation navigates an increasingly complex security landscape.