Before we understand how Syria crisis can affect India, we must comprehend to realise what were the situations that put the Syrian crisis its today’s phase. But before we do that, let’s know about Tunisia crisis.
Tunisian Crisis
Tunisia crisis acts can also be intercepted as a catalyst that worked for Arab spring, which is an ongoing conflict in Egypt, Syria, Tunisia and Libya. Tunisian crisis started in December 2010 with the ousting of president Zime-el-abidine Ben Ali in January 2011. The reason which had become the cause to overthrow the govt. became unemployment, food inflation, corruption, and lack of freedom of speech. After Ben Ali’s expel, the elections that followed after the revolution was won by a coalition of Islamist Ennahda movement with Congress Republic.
Tunisia on the boil again
Despite the revolution and reinstatement of establishment with a new govt, the assassination of leftish figure Mohamed Brahmi in 2013, ruptured the political structure in Tunisia. In western world the uprising of Tunisia and wider Arab world are called Jasmine spring as Jasmine is the national flower of Tunisia.
For all the reasons which have caused the fall of govt in Tunisia became the reason of Arab Spring. In other words, Tunisian crisis added fuel to the fire and worked in favour of conditions that gave birth to Arab spring.
Now about Syria crisis, what is important to know is what is Syria crisis and how it’s affecting India.
But before we do that, we have to understand the position of India. We have to consolidate in terms of economy and other factors to bear the consequences that may occur on looking the present set of situations.
With UN reports affirming the Syrian army using Chemical weapons against its own people, so under given circumstance if the US go ahead and attack on Syria, like it is openly saying on the use of Chemical weapons used by Syria, the prices of crude oil will skyrocket and the growth of Indian economy will be grossly affected with depreciation of rupee in international market.
One would wonder if how the prices of crude oil will increase, as Syria is not a big oil exporter but still can impact Indian market very severely. Therefore, the most important factor one has to understand is that Syria is a country with majority of Sunni Muslim but President Bashar-al-asad, who is an Alwite, is more inclined to Shia community along with Iran and Iraq which also Shia Muslim countries. Now since, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are Sunni Muslim countries; they confer their support in rebels in Syria, who are Sunni majors and helping the rebels.
But this also holds an economic factor to Saudi-Qatar opposition and Syrian government. If Basher-al-asad is dethroned, then Saudi and Qatar can laid an oil-gas pipeline via through Syria to Mediterranean and beyond and can buy former’s oil and latter’s gas.
Russia supplies oil and gas to Europe and would be affected by Saudi and Qatar interference in Europe. This is why Russia is backing Syria. Iran is having a feud with America and it is a Shia Muslim country. Iran also does not want a Sunni regime in Syria.
Now, with its national debt rising and an ongoing conflict emerged in between the democratic and republicans, the US have a huge stake in Syria. The republicans want the debt to be reduced and the democratic are powering to lend more money from the Federal bank. If USA will finance a war, it will mean more spending which means the federal bank has to finance the war. Now a country after war is followed by recession as it happened in 2009 Iraq war and followed by recession.
India imports 78% of its crude oil. If war will break out in Syria, the oil prices will go high and India’s fiscal deficit will increase and economy will slow down. If the oil price will go near 150$ per barrel we have to give 100 Rs per litre of petrol and 1100 Rs for a gas cylinder.
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Anurag Joshi, Editorial TeamAnurag Joshi is a defence aspirants, he has completed B.tech Graduate with Electronics subjects. He lives in Vasundhara, Ghaziabad. His area of interest are aligns sports, general awareness and social reforms. Mail us to join our editorial team now.
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