In the lead-up to a pivotal presidential election in Romania, concerns have emerged regarding the potential impact of a NATO-skeptic candidateโs victory on the countryโs long-standing alliance with the transatlantic military organization. As Romania prepares for a crucial run-off vote between Calin Georgescu, a contender perceived as pro-Russian, and the pro-European centrist candidate Elena Lusconi, experts assert that institutional frameworks will likely mitigate any threats to NATOโs presence in the nation.
Iulian Chifu, a prominent defense expert and former advisor on international security for the Romanian government, reassured that Romaniaโs constitution presents significant constraints on a presidentโs ability to disrupt NATO ties. โThanks to Romaniaโs constitution there is not much he can do,โ Chifu stated while highlighting his role as head of the Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Center in Bucharest.
Georgescu, 62, stirred apprehension among NATO supporters when he unexpectedly triumphed in the first round of voting on November 24, where he referred to Russian President Vladimir Putin as a โpatriotโ and expressed opposition to NATOโs missile defense system stationed at Deveselu. As the election approaches, the stakes are high, with the presidency encompassing dual responsibilities as commander of the armed forces and oversight over foreign and security policy.
Romania has traditionally maintained a strategic position as a reliable NATO partner, situated on Europeโs eastern flank with direct access to both Ukraine and the Black Sea. The country has actively contributed to NATO efforts, including delivering a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine and developing Kogฤlniceanu airbase into one of NATOโs largest installations, which is anticipated to surpass the U.S. base in Ramstein, Germany. Romania also hosts a French-led NATO battle group, has ordered 32 F-35 fighter jets, and operates a training hub for Ukrainian F-16 pilots.
However, in a marked shift, Georgescu has pledged to cease support for Ukraine, including halting pilot training, and emphasized a focus on Romaniaโs national interests in the region. This pivot has heightened concerns among European leaders, particularly following allegations that Romania has been subjected to โaggressive hybrid Russian attacksโ during the election process. The countryโs top security council reported instances of social media manipulation favoring Georgescu and claimed that hacking attempts on election servers were tied to foreign state actors.
The United States has reacted promptly to these developments, with the State Department asserting that โRomaniaโs hard-earned progress anchoring itself in the Transatlantic community cannot be turned back by foreign actors seeking to shift Romaniaโs foreign policy away from its Western alliances.โ
Despite widespread alarm over Georgescuโs candidacy, Chifu suggested that worries about significant alterations to NATO ties were overstated. He noted that while the president has roles in security and foreign policy, he relies heavily on the government, which holds command over the foreign ministry, intelligence services, and the internal security apparatus.
The Supreme Defense Council, which the president oversees, comprises members appointed by both the government and parliament, further diluting potential unilateral actions by the president. Following the recent parliamentary elections, pro-NATO parties have secured a majority, which Chifu argues further stabilizes Romaniaโs commitment to its obligations within NATO.
Sandu-Valentin Mateiu, a defense commentator and former naval captain, underscored the uncertainty surrounding Georgescuโs potential actions if elected. Describing him as a โmystery,โ Mateiu pointed out inconsistencies in Georgescuโs past statements regarding NATO obligations and military expenditures, questioning what he truly intends regarding alliances.
Regardless of the outcome, experts indicate that any major policy reversals, particularly those solidified through parliamentary agreementsโsuch as the expansion of NATO military installationsโwould be challenging to implement. The upcoming election thus holds profound implications for Romaniaโs strategic direction amidst ongoing tensions in the region.
